TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 5:13 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting which San Francisco player or unit will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game against Arizona. Each market is tied to a specific player or the defensive unit, with outcomes determined by the game's early scoring events.
The markets resolve based on which specified San Francisco player or unit scores the first touchdown in the designated game. If the designated player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to whether that player scores the first touchdown. If no San Francisco touchdowns are scored in the game, the 'No San Francisco Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all individual player markets resolve to No. Each market exclusively evaluates its designated participant's involvement in the first touchdown scenario.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, but may be influenced by factors like public betting bias or risk management. This market, however, is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast outcomes, especially when there's significant public interest and information available. Discrepancies can also arise due to differing market structures and incentives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of a specific outcome. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people trade, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event. The closer we get to the game, the more volatile the price may become as new information emerges and traders refine their predictions. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of those participating in the market.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which player scores the first touchdown for the San Francisco 49ers in the game against Arizona. The official game statistics will be used to determine the winning contract. It’s important to note that any scoring plays subject to review or overturned by officials will be reflected in the final resolution, ensuring accuracy and fairness in determining the outcome of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, particularly the 49ers’ offensive players, would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest conditions unfavorable for passing, could also impact the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about coaching strategies or player matchups could lead to shifts in trader sentiment. Finally, the overall betting activity and public perception of each team’s chances will continue to shape the price of contracts in this market.