TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 11, 1:09 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Arizona will win their matchup against Los Angeles D by more than 1.5 runs in their scheduled professional baseball game. On Kalshi, the probability that Arizona wins by over 1.5 runs stands at 94.0%, according to the resolution source tied to the final margin of victory. Watch for the game's completion on July 10, 2026 at 10:10 PM EDT, which will determine the final run differential and settle the market.
Resolution is based on the final score differential in the professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 10, 2026 at 10:10 PM EDT. Los Angeles D outcomes resolve to Yes if Los Angeles D wins by more than the specified margin (1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 runs). Arizona outcomes resolve to Yes if Arizona wins by more than the specified margin (1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 runs). Only one outcome can resolve to Yes based on the final game result.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market may show a different consensus than traditional sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges closer to kickoff. Comparing the two can reveal where professional oddsmakers and prediction market participants disagree on the likely outcome, offering insight into which side may be undervalued.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts reflecting their belief in each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract moves based on supply and demand, with buyers and sellers setting the terms in real time. Higher prices indicate stronger market conviction toward that outcome. You can place limit or market orders to enter or exit your position, and the platform matches trades instantly, ensuring transparent price discovery throughout the trading window.
This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once the game concludes and the final spread result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual margin of victory in the matchup, confirmed through official game records. Until that point, traders can adjust positions as odds shift with breaking news, injury reports, or betting patterns. Resolution is automatic once the event is finalized and the data is confirmed.
Key injury announcements, roster changes, and weather conditions can shift trader sentiment significantly in this market. Betting syndicate activity and sharp money flowing to one side often precedes broader price movement. Public perception shifts driven by recent team performance, head-to-head matchup history, or coaching decisions may also influence odds. As game time approaches, late-breaking news and pregame analysis typically trigger final repricing. Monitor team news feeds and expert commentary to anticipate moves before they're fully reflected in the market price.