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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
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Polymarket:
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Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 8:21 PM EST
Kalshi
Arizona faces Los Angeles in a contest where a safety—scoring two points by tackling the offense in its own end zone or via specific penalties—could occur for either side. This particular market resolves based solely on whether one of the teams manages to secure this distinctive defensive scoring method during the game.
If Arizona or Los Angeles C record a safety in the Arizona vs Los Angeles C Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and opinions from participants. If sportsbook odds significantly underestimate or overestimate the probability of a safety, the prediction market may present an opportunity for informed traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially early in the market's life, as the crowd’s assessment evolves. Examining these differences can reveal valuable insights.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of a safety occurring, and the price fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time estimate of the event's likelihood. The current price represents the cost to purchase a contract that pays out if a safety occurs.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on whether a safety was officially recorded during the Arizona versus Los Angeles game. Official game statistics and reports from recognized sports authorities will be used to verify the result. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and objective, ensuring a fair outcome for all participants in this market. The final price will reflect the actual occurrence or non-occurrence of a safety.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key defensive players on either team could significantly shift expectations. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to create challenging playing conditions, might also impact the likelihood of a safety. In-game performance during the early stages of the game could also cause rapid price adjustments as traders react to unfolding events. Unexpected strategic decisions by either coaching staff could also contribute to movement in this market, as could any penalties or turnovers.