TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 6:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the number of passing attempts made by specific quarterbacks in a football game. The outcomes depend on whether the quarterbacks exceed certain thresholds of pass attempts during the match.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified quarterback records a minimum number of passing attempts in the defined game. If the quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once the quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles according to the actual number of passing attempts recorded. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent evaluation regardless of the specific threshold or quarterback involved.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the beliefs of a diverse group of forecasters. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional point spreads, especially when considering information not readily available to the public. However, sportsbook odds are easily accessible and provide a common benchmark for comparison. Discrepancies between the two can present potential arbitrage opportunities for informed traders, as they signal differing expectations about the event’s outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible passing attempt totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a specific outcome, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, or the number of contracts available at different price points, also provides insights into the market’s liquidity and potential price movements. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the final passing attempts total and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing attempts total from the Arizona vs Los Angeles game will be sourced from official game statistics. The market will settle to the value representing the actual combined passing attempts made by both teams during the game. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct passing attempts total will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for incorrect totals will forfeit their investment. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the Arizona vs Los Angeles passing attempts market. Injury reports for key quarterbacks or receivers on either team would be significant catalysts, as they directly impact expected passing volume. Changes in weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could also lead to adjustments in the market, as teams may opt for a more run-heavy offensive strategy. Pre-game analysis from sports analysts and updated team strategies could shift expectations as well. Any news regarding coaching decisions or offensive play-calling tendencies could also impact trading activity and price movements in this market.