TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 13, 8:42 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Arizona or Las Vegas in the first quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
These markets evaluate whether Las Vegas or Arizona wins the first quarter by exceeding various point margins. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the first quarter of play, with no impact from subsequent quarters. Each market has a distinct threshold: Las Vegas must win by more than 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points, while Arizona must win by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points for their respective outcomes to resolve as 'Yes.' If the actual margin exactly matches any threshold, the market resolves as 'No,' requiring a strictly greater differential. All markets are independent, meaning each evaluates its specific threshold without reference to others. The game's official scoring and timing definitions govern resolution, and only the first quarter's results are relevant.
This market resolves around Aug 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result depends entirely on the live game’s first-quarter scoring margin — specifically whether Arizona covers the spread by more than 2.5 points compared to Las Vegas. Once the quarter ends and official scores are published, the market settles automatically based on those results.
Injuries to key players, changes in starting lineups, or weather conditions affecting game strategy could shift this market significantly. Strong pre-game practices or media commentary highlighting tactical advantages for either team may also influence trader sentiment. As the game draws nearer, any news impacting team performance — even minor updates — can cause rapid price adjustments, reflecting updated expectations for who will control the first quarter.