TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 3:35 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Texas A&M will win their college football game against Arizona State by more than 2.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives an 87.0% probability to Texas A&M winning by over 2.5 points, with resolution determined by the final score of the Arizona St. vs Texas A&M game originally scheduled for September 12, 2026. Keep a close watch on the game itself on September 12, 2026, as the final score will directly determine the market’s outcome.
All markets resolve based on the official final point differential of the Arizona St. vs Texas A&M college football game scheduled for Sep 12, 2026. If Texas A&M wins by exceeding the specified point margin listed in the market title, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Conversely, if Arizona St. wins by exceeding the specified margin, the corresponding Arizona St. win-by-margin market resolves to Yes. For games postponed but starting within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain open and resolve per the actual result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by the collective forecasts of individual traders. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when public sentiment strongly favors one outcome. These differences can create opportunities for informed traders who believe the market has mispriced the probability of a particular result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Arizona State vs. Texas A&M spread. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their forecasts are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic process aims to converge the market price towards the true probability of the event occurring.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Arizona State vs. Texas A&M game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official result of the game, as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their investment. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 12, 2026. News regarding key player injuries for either Arizona State or Texas A&M would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest unfavorable playing conditions, could also shift the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in team strategy could also introduce new information that traders react to. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi themselves can create momentum and drive price movements, reflecting changes in overall market sentiment.