TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 1:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second quarter of a college football game between Arizona State and Texas A&M. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory for either team during that quarter, allowing participants to bet on how decisively one team might lead at that specific point in the game.
The markets resolve based on the point differential exclusively during the second quarter of play in the Arizona St. vs Texas A&M college football game scheduled for September 12, 2026. If Texas A&M wins the second quarter by more than the specified margin (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points), the corresponding 'Texas A&M wins 2Q by over X points' market resolves to Yes; if Arizona St. achieves the same margin, the relevant 'Arizona St. wins 2Q by over X points' market triggers. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original schedule, all markets remain active and resolve according to the actual second-quarter result. If play does not begin within this window, all markets settle at a fair price, reflecting uncertainty rather than a definitive outcome.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional forecasts, as they aggregate information from a diverse range of participants. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and provide a useful benchmark for comparison, though it's important to remember they represent different approaches to forecasting the game's outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the 2nd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likely outcome. Traders are essentially betting on whether the actual spread will be higher or lower than the price they pay for the contract.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the 2nd quarter of the Arizona State versus Texas A&M game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data provider. The market will pay out to those who correctly predicted the 2nd quarter spread, based on the final score differential at the end of the second quarter. It’s important to note that the official game results are the sole determinant of the outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Arizona State or Texas A&M teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions unfavorable to one team’s playing style, could also move the market. Additionally, any public statements from coaches or players that suggest a shift in strategy or confidence levels could influence traders’ perceptions and affect the price. Overall team performance in preceding games and any late-breaking news related to team dynamics could also play a role.