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402,751

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2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

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61%

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
predict
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Diamondbacks or Padres?

Volume:
$931,771

Arizona wins by over 1.5 runs

 - Kalshi

Arizona wins by over 1.5 runs - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 10, 12:19 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Arizona wins by over 1.5 runs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$337,831
N/A
N/A
$163,707
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Arizona Diamondbacks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$18,638
$17,301
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

San Diego wins by over 1.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$289,098
N/A
N/A
$201,810
Settled
No
kalshi

Arizona wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$124,902
N/A
N/A
$82,051
Settled
No
kalshi

San Diego wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100,430
N/A
N/A
$87,381
Settled
No
kalshi

Arizona wins by over 3.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$37,221
N/A
N/A
$27,917
Settled
No
kalshi

San Diego wins by over 3.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,811
N/A
N/A
$15,862
Settled
No
polymarket

San Diego Padres

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$87
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$81
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event group covers multiple prediction markets on the same MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 9:40 PM ET. The markets differ in scope: some resolve on the full-game winner, others on the first-5-inning leader, and others on run-differential margins. The core question is whether resolution logic is consistent across platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three distinct event scopes: full-game winner (Predict), first-5-inning leader with draw option (Polymarket), and run-differential margins only (Kalshi). Markets are not directly comparable and resolve on different game phases and outcome types.Hero tip: Recognize these as three separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket's draw option at 5 innings creates a third outcome absent from Predict and Kalshi. Kalshi's margin-only structure means tied games and games decided by 1 run do not resolve to Yes on any Kalshi market. Use Polymarket for early-game sentiment; Predict for traditional moneyline; Kalshi for run-line hedges.

Critical divergence points:

  • Predict: Full-game winner market. Resolves to Arizona Diamondbacks or San Diego Padres based on final game outcome. Postponed games remain open until completion; canceled games with no makeup resolve 50-50. Resolution source: official MLB final statistics or credible consensus within 24 hours.
  • Polymarket: First-5-inning leader market with three outcomes: Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, or Draw (if tied after 5 innings). Postponed games remain open until 5th inning completion; canceled games resolve 50-50. Same resolution source hierarchy as Predict.
  • Kalshi: Six separate run-differential markets (Arizona >1.5, >2.5, >3.5 runs; San Diego >1.5, >2.5, >3.5 runs). Each resolves Yes only if the specified margin is exceeded. No draw, tie, or full-game-winner outcome defined. Applies to full game, not first 5 innings.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, scheduled for July 9 at 9:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the final run differential in the professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. Outcomes specify which team wins and by how many runs. San Diego outcomes resolve to Yes if San Diego wins by more than the specified margin, while Arizona outcomes resolve to Yes if Arizona wins by more than the specified margin. The game's official final score determines the winning team and margin of victory.

Predict

In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, scheduled for July 9 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price this event through different mechanisms. Sportsbooks employ oddsmakers and risk management to set lines, then adjust based on liability and sharp action. Prediction markets like these rely on peer-to-peer trading, where individual traders set prices by buying and selling shares. Prediction market odds often reflect longer-term consensus and can be more efficient at incorporating public information, while sportsbooks may move faster on breaking news due to active management. Both can diverge significantly depending on liquidity, the size of recent trades, and how quickly each venue processes new information about pitcher health or weather.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, all of which influence pricing. Predict and Polymarket may weight recent trades differently or experience lags in order-book depth, causing temporary spreads. Arbitrage opportunities—where a trader buys low on one platform and sells high on the other—can persist if transaction costs or withdrawal delays make the trade unprofitable. Additionally, each platform's user base may have distinct information sources or risk appetites, leading one venue to price the Arizona-San Diego matchup more bullishly than the other. These gaps typically narrow as informed traders exploit them, but can widen again if major news breaks unevenly across platforms.

Pitcher announcements, bullpen injuries, and weather forecasts are primary catalysts for this market. If either team confirms a surprise starter or reveals that a key reliever is unavailable, odds will shift sharply. Weather updates—particularly wind direction and temperature affecting fly-ball carry—can sway early-inning scoring expectations. Pregame betting action on the full-game moneyline often bleeds into five-inning markets as traders hedge or double down. Lastly, live market movement during the first few pitches can accelerate repricing if one team scores early or if a batter reaches base in unexpected fashion, signaling that the market's pregame assumptions were off.