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402,751

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2,632

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5

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Diamondbacks or Padres?

Volume:
$49,270

San Diego -1.5 first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

San Diego -1.5 first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 11:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

San Diego -1.5 first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26,602
N/A
N/A
$17,190
Settled
Yes
kalshi

San Diego -2.5 first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,627
N/A
N/A
$1,368
Settled
Yes
polymarket

San Diego Padres

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,117
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Arizona -1.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,554
N/A
N/A
$16,393
Settled
No
kalshi

Arizona -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,218
N/A
N/A
$1,115
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,113
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Arizona Diamondbacks

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group covers the outcome of the first 5 innings of an MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 10:10 PM ET. Polymarket offers three-way markets (Diamondbacks win, Padres win, or Draw after 5 innings), while Kalshi offers run-differential thresholds (wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 runs). The markets measure which team is ahead or by how much at the conclusion of the 5th inning.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure different settlement values for the same underlying game event. Polymarket resolves on win/draw status; Kalshi resolves on run-differential magnitude. A single game outcome can resolve differently across platforms.Hero tip: These markets are not substitutes or hedges for each other. A close Padres victory (e.g., 2-1) resolves YES on Polymarket Padres but NO on all Kalshi markets. Understand which settlement value you are trading before placing positions.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three-way categorical resolution: Diamondbacks win, Padres win, or Draw. Resolves based on which team has more runs (or tie) at end of 5th inning. Handles postponements (remains open until 5th inning played) and cancellations (50-50 split). Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Arizona Diamondbacks if the Arizona Diamondbacks is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning.'
  • Kalshi: Four separate binary markets on run-differential thresholds: San Diego +2.5, San Diego +1.5, Arizona +1.5, Arizona +2.5. Each resolves YES if that team wins by that margin or more in first 5 innings. No explicit handling of postponements or cancellations stated. Key Quote: 'If San Diego wins by more than 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, scheduled for July 8 at 10:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the run differential at the end of the fifth inning of the Arizona vs San Diego game scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 10:10 PM EDT. Four separate markets exist: San Diego winning by more than 2.5 runs, San Diego winning by more than 1.5 runs, Arizona winning by more than 1.5 runs, and Arizona winning by more than 2.5 runs. Each market resolves to Yes if the specified team wins by more than the stated margin. If the game is postponed or delayed, markets remain open and resolve after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-time trader consensus and are often more efficient than traditional sportsbook lines because they aggregate dispersed information from many participants. Unlike sportsbooks, which set odds to balance liability, prediction markets like those tracked here adjust continuously as new information emerges. First 5 innings markets are particularly popular in prediction venues because they reduce event duration and settlement risk. Comparing this market's prices to your sportsbook's first-five lines can reveal value; prediction markets sometimes price niche outcomes more accurately due to their crowd-sourced nature and lower operational constraints.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently due to variations in their user bases, liquidity depth, and contract specifications. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket focuses on a straightforward first-five winner outcome, while Kalshi layers in a run-margin condition, attracting different trader profiles. Platform fees, withdrawal policies, and regulatory frameworks also influence how aggressively traders participate on each venue. Monitoring both platforms lets you identify arbitrage opportunities or confirm which pricing better reflects consensus before the game begins.

Key catalysts include starting pitcher announcements, recent team form, and injury updates to core lineup players. Weather conditions—wind direction, temperature, and humidity—can significantly impact early-game scoring dynamics. Bullpen availability and recent offensive trends in the first inning also drive trader sentiment. Line movement on sportsbooks and sharp action into game time often precedes prediction market shifts. Monitor pre-game news and any late roster changes; even minor adjustments to the starting lineup or pitching plan can swing odds as traders reassess the probability of an early lead.