TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Arizona
- Kalshi
Arizona - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 29, 2026
Closed: Jul 29, 2:51 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether the MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates will go to extra innings. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome is 99.9%. Data is drawn from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict, with resolution based on official final statistics from MLB or consensus of credible reporting. The next key date to watch is August 5, 2026, the estimated resolution date for this market. The second outcome, concerning the over/under 3.5 total runs, holds a probability of 0.5%.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms use the same resolution logic based on official MLB statistics or credible reporting for tie/cancellation scenarios.Primary resolution logic: Official final statistics from MLB or consensus of credible reportingCore resolution logic:
- Resolve to the winning team if a team wins the game
- Resolve to 'Yes' if at least one run is scored in the first inning by either team
- Resolve 50-50 if the game is canceled with no make-up game or ends in a tie
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Postponement: Market remains open until the game is completed; if canceled with no make-up game, resolve 50-50
- No official stats within 24 hours: Use consensus of credible reporting to resolve
Polymarket
In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for July 29 at 12:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the result of the Arizona vs Pittsburgh professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 29, 2026, at 12:35 PM EDT. If Arizona wins, the Arizona market resolves to Yes, and the Pittsburgh market resolves to No. Conversely, if Pittsburgh wins, the Pittsburgh market resolves to Yes, and the Arizona market resolves to No. Should the game be postponed or delayed but played within two days of the original date, the market remains open until the game concludes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two days after the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price, ensuring that participants are not left in limbo due to unforeseen scheduling changes. Kalshi clarifies that it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Predict
In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for July 29 at 12:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through user bets that reflect immediate trader sentiment, while Predict may incorporate different liquidity or user bases. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For the Diamondbacks vs. Pirates matchup market, these variations in user participation and available funds can create price gaps. Additionally, each platform’s fee structure and order execution speed influence how prices adjust throughout the day. The way traders on each site interpret recent performance data or pitching changes also plays a role, leading to distinct probability assessments even when the underlying event is the same.
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