TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
How many views will Ariana Grande have by Oct 1, 2026?
Above 13M
- Kalshi
Above 13M - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 29, 2026
Closed: Sep 28, 11:29 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This set of markets tracks the performance of a popular artist's YouTube views on a specific date, allowing participants to speculate on whether the artist will surpass various view thresholds. The outcomes are determined by actual view counts reported on the platform, providing a real-time gauge of audience engagement and popularity.
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on whether Ariana Grande achieves specified global daily YouTube view thresholds on September 27, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different view count benchmark, ranging from above 13 million to above 20 million views. All markets use data accessed via YouTube Charts, searching for the artist and selecting “Global” as the location, with results determined using values displayed from a New York IP address. It is important to note that YouTube has not endorsed these markets or products, and any references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no affiliation or endorsement between YouTube and the market operator. The view counts may vary depending on location and reporting methods, but the official resolution will consistently apply the New York IP perspective to ensure uniform evaluation across all thresholds.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those haven't been published yet for an event so far in the future. However, as the release date approaches, it will be insightful to see how the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi aligns with, or diverges from, expert predictions regarding the video's initial viewership. This comparison will highlight whether the market is incorporating information differently than conventional analysis, potentially revealing unique insights into public interest and marketing effectiveness.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final view count. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that specific outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, leading to a dynamic price discovery process. The market aggregates these individual assessments into a collective forecast, providing a forward-looking estimate of the video's potential success.
This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official view count for the Ariana Grande music video is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will reflect the actual number of views achieved by the video, as reported by the official source. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct view range will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their stake. The market provides a way to speculate on and profit from the anticipated performance of the video.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major announcements regarding the song's release, such as collaborations with other artists or promotional campaigns, would likely cause movement. Public sentiment towards Ariana Grande and her music, gauged through social media trends and pre-release polls, could also play a role. Unexpected events impacting the entertainment industry or online video consumption habits could also shift expectations. Finally, the release of official teasers or previews of the music video itself will be a key catalyst for price changes in this market.
