TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 13M
- Kalshi
Above 13M - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 26, 2026
Closed: Sep 25, 9:30 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of a popular music artist on a specific date, measuring how many times their content is viewed globally on a major video platform. The outcome depends on whether the view count surpasses certain thresholds, reflecting audience engagement and reach.
Kalshi
The event consists of multiple markets, each with a distinct threshold for global daily YouTube views by Ariana Grande on September 24, 2026. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified threshold is exceeded. All markets use view counts reported from a New York IP address to ensure consistency, accessing data through YouTube Charts with 'Global' selected as the location. Neither YouTube nor Kalshi endorses these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals insights into the wisdom of the crowd versus expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of perspectives than traditional analyst predictions, incorporating information from many sources. While analysts may focus on specific factors like past performance and marketing campaigns, the market aggregates diverse viewpoints, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. It's important to note that analysts’ forecasts are not directly reflected in the pricing of this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of expectations for the number of views Ariana Grande’s video will receive. The current market price is driven by traders’ individual assessments and collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official view count for the Ariana Grande video released on September 24, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will reflect the actual number of views achieved, and contracts will settle accordingly. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will profit, while those who bet on incorrect outcomes may incur losses. The resolution process ensures transparency and accuracy in determining the market’s result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements regarding the music video’s release, such as promotional campaigns, collaborations, or early previews, could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected events impacting Ariana Grande’s public image or the broader music industry could also play a role. Additionally, shifts in social media trends and online engagement surrounding the video’s release will likely be reflected in the market’s pricing. Any news that alters expectations for the video’s reach will likely cause price fluctuations.
