TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 13M
- Kalshi
Above 13M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 25, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Sep 25, 12:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of a popular music artist on a specific date, measuring how many times their content is viewed globally on a major video platform. The outcome depends on whether the view count surpasses certain thresholds, reflecting audience engagement and reach.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for global daily YouTube views by Ariana Grande on September 23, 2026. Each market specifies a different view count threshold (ranging from 13 million to 20 million). For any given market to resolve as 'Yes,' the artist's global daily views must exceed the specified threshold. All markets use view counts reported from a New York IP address to ensure consistency, accessing data through YouTube Charts by searching for the artist and selecting 'Global' as the location. It is emphasized that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive, with no affiliation implied.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or analyst predictions, potentially incorporating a wider range of factors and real-time information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or the prediction market's ability to adapt to new information as it becomes available. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into the potential accuracy of each approach when forecasting the final view count.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds based on their own research, analysis, and expectations, creating a dynamic and efficient price discovery process. As new information emerges, the prices of these contracts will fluctuate, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment regarding Ariana Grande’s views.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of views for Ariana Grande’s release on September 23, 2026, will be sourced from publicly available data, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. The market will determine the outcome based on the official view count reported by a reputable source, providing a clear and unambiguous result for all participants. This allows for a definitive settlement of all outstanding contracts.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Any news regarding Ariana Grande’s promotional activities, such as major television appearances or collaborations, could impact expectations for views. Changes in the release date or platform strategy could also cause shifts in the market. Unexpected trends in music consumption or social media engagement surrounding the release could also play a role. Furthermore, competitor releases or broader cultural events happening around September 23, 2026, might influence the market’s assessment of potential viewership.
