TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 13M
- Kalshi
Above 13M - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 24, 2026
Closed: Sep 24, 4:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of a popular music artist on a specific date, measuring how many global views their content receives on a major video platform. The outcome depends on whether the view count surpasses certain thresholds, reflecting audience engagement and reach.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Ariana Grande achieves specified global daily view thresholds on YouTube for September 22, 2026. Each market defines a unique threshold, ranging from above 13 million to above 20 million views. All markets use data accessed via YouTube Charts, searching for the artist and selecting 'Global' as the location, and will resolve based on values displayed from a New York IP address. The markets and related products are not endorsed by YouTube, and any references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no affiliation or endorsement between YouTube and the event organizer. The resolution for each market depends solely on whether the achieved view count exceeds its respective threshold.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predictions about future views are often speculative and vary widely. However, the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi offers a unique perspective, potentially reflecting factors not captured in standard media projections. If analysts predict a significantly different outcome than what is implied by the current market price, it could present an opportunity for informed traders. The market aggregates diverse opinions, potentially providing a more accurate forecast than any single source.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price moves based on supply and demand; if more people believe Ariana Grande will exceed 13.5M views, the price of the 'yes' contract will increase, and vice-versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final daily view count for Ariana Grande on September 22, 2026, as reported by a widely recognized and trusted source, will determine whether the market settles in favor of the 'above 13.5M views' outcome or not. The market will close before this date, allowing traders to finalize their positions based on the latest available information.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding Ariana Grande’s upcoming projects, such as album releases, tour announcements, or major media appearances, could significantly impact her expected viewership. Changes in the overall popularity of music videos or streaming platforms could also play a role. Unexpected events, like viral social media trends featuring Ariana Grande, or major shifts in public interest, could also move this market. Monitoring these signals will be key for traders looking to capitalize on potential price movements.
