TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 13M
- Kalshi
Above 13M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 23, 2026
Closed: Sep 23, 1:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This set of markets tracks the potential performance of a popular music artist on a specific day, measuring how many global viewers might watch their content on a major video platform. The outcome depends on whether the artist's content reaches certain audience thresholds, reflecting interest and engagement levels.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the total global daily views for Ariana Grande's YouTube content on September 21, 2026, measured from a New York IP address. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging from above 13 million to above 20 million views. If the recorded view count exceeds a market's specific threshold, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. View counts are obtained through YouTube Charts by searching for the artist and selecting “Global” as the location. These markets are independent, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others. It is important to note that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this specific event. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical analyst predictions. Analysts may focus on historical data and industry trends, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of Ariana Grande achieving a specific view count. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the inclusion of subjective factors.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people believe Ariana Grande will exceed 15 million views, the 'yes' contract price will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information.
This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the officially reported daily views for Ariana Grande’s content on September 21, 2026, as reported by a widely recognized and trusted source. The market will determine whether those views exceed 15 million, establishing the winning outcome. Traders should monitor news and official announcements leading up to the resolution date to stay informed.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding Ariana Grande’s upcoming projects, such as new album releases, concert tours, or film appearances, could drive increased viewership and move the market. Unexpected events, like viral social media trends or significant media coverage, could also influence public interest. Furthermore, changes in the overall streaming landscape or shifts in audience preferences could play a role. Any news related to Ariana Grande’s popularity and engagement will likely be reflected in trading activity.
