TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 13M
- Kalshi
Above 13M - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 21, 2026
Closed: Sep 20, 10:30 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
These markets track the performance of a popular music artist on a specific date, focusing on how many times their content is viewed globally in a single day. The outcome depends on whether the artist reaches certain viewership thresholds, reflecting audience engagement and popularity.
Kalshi
Each market evaluates whether Ariana Grande achieves a specific threshold of global daily views on YouTube for September 19, 2026. The thresholds range incrementally from above 13 million to above 20 million views. All markets use data accessed via YouTube Charts, searching for the artist and selecting 'Global' as the location, with results determined using values displayed from a New York IP address. It is noted that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no affiliation or endorsement by YouTube. The consistency across all rules ensures uniform methodology for determining view counts and resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or expert predictions, potentially incorporating a wider range of factors and real-time information. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies or biases, with the market reflecting the 'wisdom of the crowd' and analysts relying on more focused research. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on limited data and may not fully capture the dynamic nature of public interest.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing potential view counts for the Ariana Grande video. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective prediction. The market’s depth and liquidity are influenced by the level of interest and information available, impacting the accuracy of the price signals.
This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official view count for the Ariana Grande video is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will reflect the actual number of views achieved by the specified date. The resolution process relies on publicly available data, ensuring transparency and objectivity. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and how it aligns with the predictions made within this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major promotional campaigns by Ariana Grande, viral trends on social media platforms, or unexpected media coverage could all drive increased viewership. Positive or negative critical reception of the video could also influence public interest. Furthermore, any news related to Ariana Grande’s overall popularity or engagement with her fanbase could impact the market. Shifts in broader entertainment trends or competitor releases could also play a role in shaping the predictions reflected in this market.
