TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 13M
- Kalshi
Above 13M - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 15, 12:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This set of markets tracks the performance of Ariana Grande's YouTube views on a specific date, offering different thresholds for view counts. Each threshold represents a possible outcome based on how many global daily views she achieves on September 13, 2026. The resolution depends on whether her views exceed any of the specified million-view milestones.
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on whether Ariana Grande achieves a specified number of global daily views on YouTube for September 13, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different view count threshold, ranging from above 13 million to above 20 million views. All markets use data accessed via YouTube Charts, searching for the artist and selecting 'Global' as the location, with values displayed from a New York IP address. It is important to note that YouTube has not endorsed these markets or products, and any references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive and do not imply affiliation or endorsement. The outcome for each market is determined solely by whether the view count exceeds the respective threshold for that market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts, as those forecasts are not yet widely available for an event so far in the future. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports. This can lead to differences in probabilities, as this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. As the event approaches, it will be interesting to see how the market's predictions align with, or diverge from, expert opinions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the likely number of views for Ariana Grande. Traders are essentially betting on their belief about the future, and their collective actions determine the market's pricing.
This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final view count for Ariana Grande’s content on September 13, 2026, will be used to determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from official sources, ensuring a transparent and verifiable process. Traders will then be paid out based on their positions in the market and whether their predicted outcome aligned with the actual result.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move this market over the next few years. Announcements regarding Ariana Grande’s new content releases, promotional campaigns, or collaborations would likely have a significant impact. Changes in her overall popularity, media coverage, or social media engagement could also shift expectations. Unexpected events affecting the entertainment industry or broader cultural trends might also play a role. Any news or developments that alter perceptions of her potential reach and viewership will likely be reflected in the market’s prices.
