TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 7:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether the San Francisco 49ers will win against the Arizona Cardinals by more than 1.5 points. Currently, the probability of this outcome occurring on Kalshi is 95.0%. Resolution will be determined by the result of the ARI Cardinals vs SF 49ers Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 27, 2026, as reported by the game’s official results. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market will resolve based on the final score following the conclusion of the game on September 27, 2026.
The markets collectively determine the outcome of the ARI Cardinals vs SF 49ers Pro Football game scheduled for Sep 27, 2026, by evaluating the point differential between the two teams. Each market specifies a particular point threshold, and resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team wins by more than that threshold. If the 49ers win by exceeding any of the specified margins from 1.5 to 27.5 points, the corresponding 'Yes' outcome is triggered. Conversely, if the Cardinals win by more than any of the designated margins from 1.5 to 14.5 points, the respective 'Yes' market resolves accordingly. Should neither team meet their respective thresholds, all markets resolve to 'No.' The markets are independent, allowing multiple 'Yes' resolutions if various thresholds are surpassed, but each market's resolution is strictly contingent on its specified condition being met.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market represents the collective belief of informed traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of each market. When a significant difference exists, it may present an arbitrage opportunity for those who can capitalize on the misalignment between prediction market prices and sportsbook lines. This market provides a unique perspective on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Cardinals-49ers game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and efficient forecast. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded, and incorrect ones are penalized. This creates a robust and informative market signal.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Cardinals-49ers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by a trusted sports data source. The market will then pay out to traders who correctly predicted the final spread. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches, as any changes or updates could impact the final outcome and market settlement. This ensures a fair and transparent resolution process.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before the game takes place. News regarding key player injuries on either the Cardinals or the 49ers would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game's conditions, could also move the market. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role. Additionally, large trading volume from informed traders could signal shifts in market sentiment and lead to price adjustments. Monitoring these signals is crucial for understanding potential market movements.