TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 6:52 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance gap between the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers specifically during the third quarter of their scheduled game. It focuses on how decisively one team outperforms the other in that quarter, regardless of the final game result.
The event determines whether the San Francisco 49ers or the Arizona Cardinals win the third quarter of their Pro Football game by a specified margin. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold, ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points, for either team. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team achieves the required point differential in the third quarter alone. Only points scored during the third quarter count, and the outcome is independent of the overall game result. The markets cover various thresholds to allow for nuanced betting on the quarter's scoring dynamics.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook odds are inaccurate, they can influence the price here, leading to divergence. It’s common to see differences, especially as new information becomes available leading up to the game. Examining these differences can offer insights into public perception versus professional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers for contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of a particular outcome occurring – in this case, the 49ers covering the spread, or the Cardinals covering. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their prices based on new information, their own analysis, and their expectations of how others will trade. This dynamic process results in a market price that reflects the collective intelligence of all participants. The more a particular outcome is believed to be likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will be.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual point spread difference between the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers at the end of the third quarter of the game. The official game results, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will determine whether the 49ers covered the spread or if the Cardinals did. The final price on Kalshi will reflect the accuracy of the collective predictions made by traders.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Cardinals or the 49ers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could affect trader sentiment. Public perception, as reflected in other sources like polls or expert analysis, can also play a role, although this market represents independent predictions.