TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 6:07 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets evaluate various scoring thresholds for the second quarter of an upcoming football game between the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers. Each threshold represents a different level of scoring performance that bettors can wager on, reflecting expectations about how high-scoring the quarter might be.
All markets resolve based solely on the total points scored by both teams combined during the second quarter of the specified game. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging from just over 3.5 points to more than 24.5 points. If the combined score exceeds the threshold specified in a market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All thresholds are evaluated independently, meaning each market operates under its own specific condition. The secondary rule consistently clarifies that only points scored during the second quarter count, ensuring focus remains on that specific period of play. These markets allow participants to assess and bet on different levels of scoring intensity within the same game segment.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on traders directly expressing their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. If sportsbook odds suggest a very high probability of a particular score range in the second quarter, this market might show a lower probability if traders believe the sportsbook is overestimating that likelihood. Discrepancies can arise from differing information sources and analytical approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the total points scored in the second quarter. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts, providing a dynamic and real-time estimate of the expected score range. The market's efficiency is driven by the diverse perspectives and expertise of its participants.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the total points scored in the second quarter of the Cardinals-49ers game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The official NFL game statistics will serve as the basis for verifying the final score. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data.
Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Cardinals or the 49ers would likely impact the expected score. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence the game and, consequently, the market price. In-game events during the first quarter, like a quick scoring drive or a defensive turnover, could lead to rapid adjustments in trader sentiment. Finally, any significant shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams’ offensive capabilities could also move this market.