TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 7:20 PM EST
Kalshi
Similar to the first market, this one tracks the total points in the second half for a different pair of teams, with thresholds from 3.5 to 42.5 points.
The market resolves to Yes if the combined points scored by both teams in the second half (including overtime) exceed the specified threshold. Only points from the second half count, and thresholds range from 3.5 to 42.5 points.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals freely trading based on their own analysis. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional point spreads, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds are readily accessible and provide a useful benchmark for comparison, and discrepancies can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the actual 2nd half total will be above or below the listed price. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is influenced by factors like news, injuries, and overall market sentiment. Essentially, the price represents the probability-weighted average of all traders’ beliefs about the final outcome of the 2nd half total.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final 2nd half total score of the Cardinals-49ers game will be used to determine whether the contracts settle at $100 or $0. If the actual 2nd half total is greater than the final market price, buyers of the contracts win. If it is lower, sellers win. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result.
Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries to either the Cardinals or 49ers would have a substantial impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the scoring environment, could also shift the price. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could influence trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can cause rapid price adjustments, reflecting a sudden shift in market expectations.