TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 7:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the second-half performance of another team pair, resolving to Yes if the specified team wins by more than various margins from 2.5 to 20.5 points.
The market resolves to Yes if the specified team wins the second half (including overtime) by more than the indicated point margin. Margins range from 2.5 to 20.5 points, with separate markets for each threshold.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, whereas this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Keep in mind that prediction markets allow you to buy and sell your position up until the event, unlike a traditional sportsbook bet.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their beliefs are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to converge towards the true probability of the event outcome, offering a unique perspective compared to static odds offered elsewhere. The current market reflects the collective assessment of all participants.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the second half of the Cardinals-49ers game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official result, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will be the basis for settlement. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on incorrect spreads will not. The precise details of payout amounts are determined by the contract prices at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Cardinals or the 49ers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might influence trader sentiment. Public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.