TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals in the first quarter of their upcoming football game. It focuses on the point differential between the two teams during that specific segment of play, offering various thresholds for victory margins.
The event evaluates whether the San Francisco 49ers or Arizona Cardinals achieve a specified point differential victory in the first quarter of their scheduled game on September 27, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of points by which either team must win the first quarter. For markets where the 49ers are the specified winner, the market resolves to 'Yes' if they win the first quarter by more than the stated margin—ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points. Conversely, for markets specifying the Cardinals as the winner, the market resolves to 'Yes' if they win the first quarter by more than the stated margin—also ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points. All outcomes are determined solely by points scored during the first quarter of play, with no consideration given to the full game result or any subsequent quarters. The markets are independent, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately, and each has its own resolution criteria based on the exact point differential achieved in the first quarter.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own analysis and information. It’s common to see discrepancies emerge as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. These differences can present opportunities for informed traders to find value, but it's important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, not guarantees. Comparing the two can offer a broader perspective on the event's potential.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first quarter. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. Buyers are expressing a belief that the spread will be *less* than the contract price, while sellers believe it will be *more*. This dynamic creates a real-time probability assessment for the Cardinals-49ers 1st quarter spread.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official result of the first quarter spread is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official spread as determined by the game’s official statistics. The platform will then determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual spread fell within the range specified by each contract. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment. The market’s final price will reflect the accuracy of the collective prediction.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Cardinals or the 49ers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed individuals or groups could also move the price, as others react to their activity. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential shifts in the market’s assessment.