TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 6:12 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either the Arizona Cardinals or the Los Angeles Chargers specifically during the second quarter of their football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered a win.
These markets evaluate how decisively either team wins the second quarter of the specified football game. Each rule defines a specific point differential threshold that must be surpassed by the winning team for the market to resolve positively. For markets where the Chargers are specified as the potential winner, resolution occurs if they outscore the Cardinals by more than the stated margin—ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points. Conversely, markets designating the Cardinals as potential winners resolve positively if they outscore the Chargers by more than the given margin, also ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points. Crucially, only points scored during the second quarter contribute to determining the outcome, isolating performance assessment strictly to that period. The structure allows participants to speculate on varying degrees of dominance within a confined timeframe, offering granularity in predicting competitive balance or blowout scenarios for either side during this specific segment of play.
It’s common to see differences between prediction market prices and those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. If a significant number of people believe a sportsbook’s line is incorrect, they can trade in this market to express that view, potentially driving the price away from the sportsbook’s offering. This dynamic can sometimes lead to prediction markets being more accurate than traditional odds.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the 2nd quarter of the Cardinals-Chargers game. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined entirely by supply and demand among traders on the exchange.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread at the end of the second quarter of the Cardinals-Chargers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout of $1 per contract, while those on the incorrect side will lose their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Cardinals or the Chargers would likely cause movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the passing or running game, could also shift the market. In-game performance during the first quarter, such as a dominant offensive drive or a significant turnover, could also lead to adjustments in trader sentiment and, consequently, the price of this market.