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406,065
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Argentina advances
all
4 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
Limitless
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 12, 2026
Closed: Jul 11, 11:44 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This event group tracks whether both Argentina and Switzerland will score during their FIFA World Cup Quarterfinal match. Across Polymarket, Predict, Limitless, and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus shows 100.0% probability for both teams to score. Resolution will be determined by the official final score and match statistics published on FIFA.com, with credible reporting as a secondary source if official data is unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusion. Watch for the match outcome on July 11, 2026, which will settle all related markets by July 13, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms (Kalshi, Limitless, Polymarket, Predict) apply consistent resolution logic: official FIFA.com final score for 90-minute regulation play, with advancement markets including extra time and penalty shootouts. Postponement and cancellation protocols are uniform across platforms.Primary resolution logic: FIFA.com official final score and match statistics; secondary source is consensus of credible reporting if official statistics unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusion.Core resolution logic:
- Regular-time markets (spreads, over/under, team scoring, half-time markets) resolve on official final score within first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only.
- Advancement markets resolve to the team that officially advances to the next round, including advancement after regulation, extra time, penalty shootout, or official competition organizer ruling (forfeit, abandonment, disqualification).
- Extra time and penalty shootout markets resolve Yes if the match proceeds to those phases; No if match concludes in regulation or is abandoned before reaching those phases.
- Both Teams to Score markets resolve Yes only if both teams score at least one goal in the specified time period (full match, first half, or second half as applicable).
- If match is postponed, all markets remain open until match completion or official advancement declaration.
- If match is canceled entirely with no make-up game, regular-time markets resolve 50-50; advancement markets resolve 50-50 only if no team is officially declared to advance.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Match Abandonment Before Completion: If match is started but not completed and abandoned before conclusion, regular-time markets resolve according to the official final score at time of abandonment published by FIFA.com. Advancement markets resolve 50-50 if no team is officially declared to advance.
- Extra Time and Penalty Shootout Exclusion: All regular-time scoring markets (spreads, over/under, team goals, half-time markets) explicitly exclude extra time and penalty shootout goals. Only advancement markets and dedicated extra time/penalty shootout markets include these phases.
- Official Score Revisions: Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. Markets settle based on the score as officially published at time of resolution.
- First Half vs Second Half Clarity: First half markets resolve on goals scored within first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time. Second half markets resolve on goals scored within second 45 minutes of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. These are mutually exclusive and do not include extra time.
- Advancement Definition: Team to Advance market includes advancement after regulation, extra time, penalty shootout, or official competition organizer ruling. This is the broadest definition and supersedes all regular-time scoring outcomes.
Polymarket
More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 11 at 9:00 PM ET.
Kalshi
If Argentina advance past Switzerland in the Argentina vs Switzerland soccer match in the Quarterfinal of the FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If Switzerland advance past Argentina in the Argentina vs Switzerland soccer match in the Quarterfinal of the FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Predict
More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 11 at 9:00 PM ET.
Limitless
This market concerns the Argentina vs Switzerland World Cup match originally scheduled for July 12, 2026, 01:00 UTC. This market will resolve to "Argentina" if Argentina is the team that officially advances from this match to the next round of the World Cup, or is crowned winner of the competition if this match is the final. This market will resolve to "Switzerland" if Switzerland is the team that officially advances from this match to the next round of the World Cup, or is crowned winner of the competition if this match is the final. This includes advancement after regulation, extra time, a penalty shoot-out, or an official ruling by the competition organizer such as forfeit, abandonment, or disqualification. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed or a team is officially declared to advance.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different odds on the same outcome due to their distinct user bases, fee structures, and liquidity pools. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's regulatory framework and trader demographics may attract different risk appetites than Limitless, causing price discovery to lag or lead between platforms. Lower liquidity on one venue can also amplify volatility and widen spreads. Savvy traders monitor both platforms to identify arbitrage opportunities or to gauge which market is pricing in the most recent information about team form and injury updates.
Key catalysts include team news such as injuries to star players, lineup changes, or tactical shifts announced before kickoff. Recent form, head-to-head records, and tournament momentum can shift trader conviction significantly. Weather conditions at the venue, travel fatigue, and psychological factors like revenge narratives also influence market prices. Major betting syndicates or sharp money flowing into one side can trigger rapid repricing. Social media sentiment and expert commentary may sway retail traders, while professional syndicates react to statistical models and real-time team information, creating dynamic price movement right up to the match.