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Argentina vs. Switzerland - First Team to Score
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Which team will score first: Argentina or Switzerland?

Volume:
$1,177,351

Argentina

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 9:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Argentina

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$241,741
N/A
N/A
$194,598
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Argentina

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$79,268
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

ARG

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$268,302
$56,467
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

CHE

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$2,321
$43,558
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Switzerland

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$244,400
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Switzerland

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$133,015
N/A
N/A
$122,415
Settled
No
predict

Neither

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$2,392
$10,381
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

No Goal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$306,041
N/A
N/A
$262,134
Settled
No
polymarket

Neither

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$62,481
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks which team will score first during the Argentina vs. Switzerland FIFA World Cup match on July 11, 2026. Across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict, the aggregated consensus shows Argentina to score first at 100.0%. Resolution will be determined by official statistics from the governing body or event organizers, with credible reporting used as backup if official results are not published within 2 hours of match conclusion. Watch for the match kickoff on July 11, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET, as the first goal scored during the 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time will determine the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Time window scope divergence: Kalshi includes extra time periods in resolution scope, while Polymarket and Predict explicitly exclude extra time and penalty shootouts, limiting resolution to the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only.Hero tip: Traders must account for the possibility of extra time. On Kalshi, a goal scored in the 95th minute of extra time counts as first goal. On Polymarket and Predict, the market resolves to Neither if no goal is scored in the first 90 minutes + stoppage time, regardless of extra time outcomes. Position sizing should reflect this scope difference, especially in knockout-stage World Cup matches where extra time is common.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves based on first goal scored during the entire game including regulation, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. Rule structure contains a logical issue: all three outcomes (Argentina first, Switzerland first, neither) are stated to resolve to Yes, suggesting the rule may be malformed or the platform intends a different outcome structure.
  • Polymarket: Resolves to Argentina, Switzerland, or Neither based strictly on first goal within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Explicitly states: Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If no goal in first 90+stoppage, resolves to Neither.
  • Predict: Identical to Polymarket: resolves to Argentina, Switzerland, or Neither based on first goal within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Explicitly excludes extra time and penalty shootouts.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming match between Argentina and Switzerland, scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Argentina" if Argentina are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Switzerland" if Switzerland are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by which team records the first goal during the entire Argentina vs Switzerland FIFA World Cup match on July 11, 2026, encompassing regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. The three possible outcomes are: Argentina scores first, Switzerland scores first, or no goal is scored by either team throughout the entire match. If the first goal scored is an own goal, the market resolves based on the team to which the goal is officially awarded. This market is not endorsed by FIFA, and references to FIFA or the FIFA World Cup are descriptive only and do not indicate any affiliation or endorsement.

Predict

In the upcoming match between Argentina and Switzerland, scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Argentina" if Argentina are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Switzerland" if Switzerland are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi differ from traditional sportsbooks in that traders themselves set odds through continuous buying and selling, rather than oddsmakers posting fixed lines. This creates a dynamic, crowdsourced price that updates in real time as new information emerges. Sportsbooks typically build in margins and adjust lines to manage liability, whereas prediction markets reward accurate forecasting directly. For this match, comparing this market's implied probabilities to major sportsbook spreads can reveal where professional and retail traders disagree on Argentina and Switzerland's scoring chances.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which naturally produces price variations. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have distinct user bases with varying risk appetites and information access. Market depth, order-book dynamics, and the timing of large trades can cause temporary divergences. Additionally, platform-specific rules around trading hours, leverage, and settlement mechanics influence how quickly prices converge. Savvy traders monitor both venues to identify arbitrage opportunities before the match begins.

Team news—injuries to key forwards or defensive players—can significantly shift scoring probabilities. Recent form, head-to-head records, and lineup announcements closer to kickoff typically drive large price moves. Betting syndicates and sharp money often flow in during the final hours before the match, reflecting late-breaking tactical information or injury updates. Weather conditions and venue factors may also influence offensive and defensive performance. Social media sentiment and expert predictions can sway retail traders, while institutional activity tends to stabilize prices as the match approaches.