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5

Polymarket:

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Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - First Team to Score
polymarket
kalshi

Which team will score first: Argentina or Cabo Verde?

Volume:
$1,187,697

Argentina

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 6:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Argentina

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$234,077
N/A
N/A
$216,148
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Argentina

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$71,252
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

No Goal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$261,556
N/A
N/A
$231,101
Settled
No
kalshi

Cape Verde

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$239,600
N/A
N/A
$216,415
Settled
No
polymarket

Cabo Verde

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$192,205
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Neither

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$189,007
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether Argentina will score the first goal against Cabo Verde in their FIFA World Cup match. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus shows Argentina to score first at 100.0%. The resolution source is the official result of the Argentina vs. Cabo Verde professional FIFA World Cup soccer game. Watch for the match kickoff on July 3, 2026, as the resolution window begins at that time and extends through regulation, stoppage time, and any extra time periods.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical contradiction where all three possible outcomes (Argentina scores first, Cape Verde scores first, neither scores) are each written to resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Additionally, Kalshi includes extra time while Polymarket explicitly excludes it, creating a scope mismatch on the time window.Hero tip: Polymarket's market is the only resolvable option. It clearly defines resolution within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with three mutually exclusive outcomes (Argentina, Cabo Verde, Neither). Kalshi's market should not be traded until the platform corrects the logical contradiction in its resolution rules.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to one of three outcomes: Argentina (if Argentina scores first in 90+stoppage), Cabo Verde (if Cabo Verde scores first in 90+stoppage), or Neither (if no goal in 90+stoppage). Extra time and penalties explicitly excluded. Clear, mutually exclusive outcomes.
  • Kalshi: All three outcomes (Argentina scores first, Cape Verde scores first, neither scores) are each written to resolve Yes if they occur during 'entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods)'. This creates logical impossibility: only one team can score first, yet all three rules resolve to Yes. Includes extra time, unlike Polymarket.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming match between Argentina and Cabo Verde, scheduled for July 3, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Argentina" if Argentina are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Cabo Verde" if Cabo Verde are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by which team records the first goal during the complete match between Argentina and Cape Verde, encompassing regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. If Argentina scores first, the Argentina outcome resolves Yes. If Cape Verde scores first, the Cape Verde outcome resolves Yes. If the match concludes without any team scoring, the No Goal outcome resolves Yes. In the event that the first goal scored is an own goal, resolution is based on the team officially awarded credit for that goal by FIFA match officials, not the team that committed the own goal. All resolution determinations are final upon official match records.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate on distinct mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, while prediction markets rely on trader supply and demand to discover prices. This market often reflects sharper consensus than sportsbooks because traders face direct financial incentive to identify mispricing. Comparing this market's implied probability to major sportsbook lines can reveal value opportunities, especially when one venue has moved faster than the other on breaking news or injury updates.

Team news—injuries to key strikers or defensive absences—typically triggers sharp repricing, as does confirmation of starting lineups closer to kickoff. Tactical shifts, such as a switch to a more attacking formation, can shift probability in real time. Weather conditions and pitch quality may favor one team's style of play and influence early-game tempo. Betting syndicates and sharp money often move this market in the final hours before kickoff, so watching for volume spikes and position accumulation can signal where informed traders are leaning. Live odds will also react instantly to early match events like fouls or near-misses.