TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 28, 2:43 PM EST
Limitless
This market will resolve to "YES" if at least one debutant nation scores 3 or more goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as recorded in the FIFA.com match reports for the relevant matches. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO." For the purposes of this market, the debutant nations are Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan. Goals scored in extra time count toward this market. Goals scored in penalty shootouts do not count. This market will resolve as soon as any listed nation scores 3 or more goals, or once all listed nations have completed their participation in the tournament. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, or the final tournament goal totals of the listed nations cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "NO.” The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "YES" if at least one debutant nation scores 3 or more goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as recorded in the FIFA.com match reports for the relevant matches. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO." For the purposes of this market, the debutant nations are Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan. Goals scored in extra time count toward this market. Goals scored in penalty shootouts do not count. This market will resolve as soon as any listed nation scores 3 or more goals, or once all listed nations have completed their participation in the tournament. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, or the final tournament goal totals of the listed nations cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "NO.” The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different trader bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate beliefs from many independent traders competing for accuracy. This market's odds may lead or lag sportsbook lines depending on which venue's participants have fresher information about squad depth, coaching changes, or qualifying-round performance. Comparing both sources can reveal where consensus is strongest and where uncertainty remains highest.
On Limitless, traders set prices through continuous order-matching, with buyers and sellers negotiating the probability that a debutant nation scores 3+ goals at the 2026 World Cup. On Limitless, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the collective confidence of active traders, adjusting in real time as new information about squad rosters, injury reports, and group-stage draws becomes available. Deeper liquidity typically narrows spreads, making it easier to enter or exit positions near the consensus price.
This market resolves around Jul 20, 2026, once the 2026 World Cup concludes and final goal tallies for all participating nations are verified. The outcome is determined by whether at least one debutant nation—a country competing in the World Cup for the first time—scores 3 or more goals across all their matches in the tournament. Resolution is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting of official match results.
Key catalysts include qualifying-round results that reveal debutant nations' offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities, managerial appointments and tactical shifts, injury updates to star players, and the official 2026 group-stage draw. Media coverage of expansion teams' preparation camps and friendly matches will influence trader sentiment. As the tournament approaches, each debutant's opening matches become critical: early goals or shutouts will sharply repriced this market. Late-stage group matches and knockout progression will also drive final adjustments before resolution.