TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Sports
América FC vs. Ceará SC
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of América FC vs. Ceará SC?

Volume:
$866,664

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 18, 2026

Closed: Jul 17, 8:01 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$255,580
N/A
N/A
$101,708
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (América FC vs. Ceará SC)

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,460
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

America FC

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$351,554
N/A
N/A
$112,964
Settled
No
polymarket

América FC

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$33,498
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ceara

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$206,147
N/A
N/A
$128,523
Settled
No
polymarket

Ceará SC

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,424
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the professional soccer match between América FC and Ceará SC in Brazil's Série B championship scheduled for July 17, 2026. Aggregated data from Polymarket and Kalshi shows a consensus probability of 100.0% for a draw, with América FC winning at 0.1%. The match result will be resolved according to official CBF records within 90 minutes of play. Watch for the final whistle on July 17, 2026, which will determine settlement across all three possible outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market structure divergence: Polymarket uses three separate binary markets with asymmetric cancellation rules, while Kalshi uses a single three-outcome market with no explicit cancellation clause. The underlying event resolution criteria are unified, but settlement mechanics differ.Hero tip: Understand your platform's market structure before trading. On Polymarket, cancellation creates a Yes for draw but No for both win markets—this is an unusual asymmetry. On Kalshi, verify the cancellation protocol with the platform. Both platforms agree on the primary resolution source (CBF/official statistics) and the 90-minute evaluation window.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three independent binary markets. América win and Ceará win markets resolve No if canceled with no makeup. Draw market resolves Yes if canceled with no makeup. Resolution source: CBF official statistics within 2 hours, or credible reporting consensus. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No' (win markets) vs 'resolve to Yes' (draw market).
  • Kalshi: Single three-outcome market covering all possible results (América win, Ceará win, Tie). Each outcome resolves Yes if it occurs. No explicit cancellation or postponement clause provided. Resolution source: implied to be official Brasileiro Serie B governing body. Key Quote: 'If America FC wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Ceara wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie is the result... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for Friday, July 17, 2026 between América FC and Ceará SC.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final result of the America FC vs Ceara Brasileiro Serie B match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Each outcome—America FC win, Ceara win, or tie—resolves its corresponding market to Yes based on the match result. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled more than two weeks from the original July 17, 2026 date, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data on the América FC vs. Ceará SC match across Polymarket and Kalshi, allowing traders to monitor real-time odds and trading volume as the event approaches. Both venues host contracts tied to the same underlying match outcome, though each platform structures its markets independently. You can track how odds shift across venues, compare consensus pricing, and see which outcomes attract the most trader interest. The combined volume across platforms reflects the total capital deployed on this fixture, giving you a comprehensive view of market sentiment leading up to kickoff.

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes using different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and risk management, then adjust them to balance their book. Prediction markets, by contrast, aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery—odds reflect what thousands of participants collectively believe will happen. This market-driven approach often surfaces information faster than traditional oddsmakers, though sportsbook odds may incorporate additional factors like injury reports or weather. Comparing this market's prices to major sportsbooks can reveal where traders and bookmakers diverge on the match outcome.

Key catalysts include team news such as injuries to star players, lineup announcements, or managerial changes that alter perceived match strength. Recent form, head-to-head records, and league standings can shift trader sentiment as the fixture date approaches. Weather conditions and venue factors may also influence odds if either team has a notable home or away record. Major betting syndicates or sharp money flowing into one side can trigger rapid repricing. As kickoff nears, any official updates on team availability or match logistics will likely move prices. Real-time developments during the pre-match period, including final team sheets, often produce the largest swings in this market.