TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 17, 8:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of the professional soccer match between América FC and Ceará SC in Brazil's Série B championship scheduled for July 17, 2026. Aggregated data from Polymarket and Kalshi shows a consensus probability of 100.0% for a draw, with América FC winning at 0.1%. The match result will be resolved according to official CBF records within 90 minutes of play. Watch for the final whistle on July 17, 2026, which will determine settlement across all three possible outcomes.
This event is for the upcoming Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for Friday, July 17, 2026 between América FC and Ceará SC.
Resolution is based on the final result of the America FC vs Ceara Brasileiro Serie B match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Each outcome—America FC win, Ceara win, or tie—resolves its corresponding market to Yes based on the match result. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled more than two weeks from the original July 17, 2026 date, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes using different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and risk management, then adjust them to balance their book. Prediction markets, by contrast, aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery—odds reflect what thousands of participants collectively believe will happen. This market-driven approach often surfaces information faster than traditional oddsmakers, though sportsbook odds may incorporate additional factors like injury reports or weather. Comparing this market's prices to major sportsbooks can reveal where traders and bookmakers diverge on the match outcome.
Key catalysts include team news such as injuries to star players, lineup announcements, or managerial changes that alter perceived match strength. Recent form, head-to-head records, and league standings can shift trader sentiment as the fixture date approaches. Weather conditions and venue factors may also influence odds if either team has a notable home or away record. Major betting syndicates or sharp money flowing into one side can trigger rapid repricing. As kickoff nears, any official updates on team availability or match logistics will likely move prices. Real-time developments during the pre-match period, including final team sheets, often produce the largest swings in this market.