TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 29, 11:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between America and Puebla, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined based on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Outcomes are evaluated against specific goal-differential thresholds to determine resolution.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either America or Puebla wins the match originally scheduled for August 29, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and excludes extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct outcome conditions are evaluated: America winning by more than 2.5 goals, America winning by more than 1.5 goals, Puebla winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Puebla winning by more than 2.5 goals. The market resolves to 'Yes' for the specific condition that is met; if multiple conditions are satisfied, the most specific (highest threshold) takes precedence. The event is unaffiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more nuanced outlook than traditional sportsbook lines. Traders on Kalshi incorporate a wider range of data points, including recent form and injuries, which can lead to tighter or more divergent spreads. Comparing the two can reveal where public betting sentiment diverges from trader expectations.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set the price for this market based on their expectations of the game’s outcome. The current implied probability reflects the collective wisdom of participants, adjusting dynamically with new information such as lineup changes or weather conditions. Volume of $285,993 over the last 24 hours shows liquidity levels.
Injuries to key players, weather updates, and tactical changes by coaches can all shift this market. High-profile performances or controversies in preceding matches may also influence trader sentiment. Any news that alters the perceived likelihood of America covering the spread will cause price fluctuations on Kalshi as the event nears.