TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 26, 9:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This market measures the goal differential between Amazonas and Paysandu in their Brasileiro Serie C match on July 26, 2026. It resolves based on which team wins and by how large a margin after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Resolution depends on the final score differential in the Amazonas vs Paysandu professional Brasileiro Serie C soccer game originally scheduled for July 26, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time or penalties). Outcomes are structured around margin-of-victory thresholds for each team: Amazonas outcomes resolve to Yes if Amazonas wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals respectively, while Paysandu outcomes resolve to Yes if Paysandu wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals respectively. A draw or a win by one goal or less would not satisfy any of these spread conditions.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and protect their margins, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of traders risking real capital. For this market, prediction market participants may price the spread differently than sportsbooks if they believe the consensus line undervalues or overvalues one team's chances. Comparing the two can reveal where informed traders see value relative to conventional betting markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts reflecting their belief about the final spread outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices range from 0 to 100 cents, with each contract representing a fractional share of the potential payout. As traders submit bids and asks, the mid-market price adjusts in real time, creating a dynamic price discovery process. Higher prices indicate greater confidence in a particular spread outcome, while lower prices suggest skepticism or lower perceived probability.
This market resolves around Jul 27, 2026, once the Amazonas vs Paysandu match concludes and the final score is verified. The outcome is determined by the actual point spread between the two teams at full time, confirmed against credible public reporting of the match result. Traders holding contracts aligned with the verified spread receive their payouts, while those on the incorrect side lose their stake. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the final whistle, pending official confirmation of the score.
Key catalysts include team news such as player injuries, lineup changes, or tactical announcements that affect perceived strength. Recent form, head-to-head history, and weather conditions on match day can all shift trader sentiment about the likely spread. Betting syndicates and sharp money entering the market may signal new information, moving prices sharply. Social media trends, expert analysis, and late-breaking developments about either team's preparation can also trigger significant repricing as traders update their expectations closer to kickoff.