TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the auction outcome for a specific artwork by Alma Thomas, determining whether it achieves various price thresholds during a scheduled sale. The resolution depends solely on the final sale price achieved at the auction house on the specified date and time.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether the final sale price of Alma Thomas's "Untitled (Etude in Green)" (lot 102) exceeds specified thresholds during the Contemporary Curated auction at Sotheby's on October 7, 2026, starting at 11:00 AM EDT. Multiple markets exist, each corresponding to a different price threshold (e.g., above $40K, above $45K, etc.), and each market resolves to "Yes" if the artwork's sale price meets or exceeds its respective threshold. The outcome for all markets is verified by checking the "Lot Sold" amount displayed on Sotheby’s official website post-auction. If the sale price is reported in a currency other than USD, it will be converted using the prevailing exchange rate at the time of verification. It is important to note that Sotheby’s has not endorsed these markets, and any references to Sotheby’s are purely descriptive and do not imply affiliation or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for the Alma Thomas painting sale, as comprehensive public forecasts are limited. However, this market represents a collective intelligence view, aggregating the opinions of numerous traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. If art market analysts predict a sale price within a specific range, it will be interesting to observe whether this market’s probabilities align with those expectations, or if traders believe the artwork will fetch a different price based on their own research and insights.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and asks, and contracts trade at the best available prices. The price of a contract reflects the probability of the final sale price falling within a specific range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their prices based on new information and their own assessments of the artwork's value, leading to a dynamic and evolving market. The current price indicates what the collective market believes is the most likely outcome, given the available information.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final sale price of the Alma Thomas painting is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official auction results announced by the auction house. The contract will pay out $1.00 to the winning side – those who correctly predicted whether the final sale price will be above or below a specific threshold – and $0.00 to the losing side. Traders should monitor news sources for the official announcement to understand the final outcome of this market.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 8, 2026. Major news regarding the condition of the painting, renewed interest from prominent collectors, or shifts in the broader art market could all influence trading activity. Pre-auction estimates released by the auction house, as well as any publicity surrounding the sale, will likely impact prices. Additionally, economic indicators and overall investor sentiment could play a role, as high-value art is often seen as an investment asset. Any unexpected developments related to the artist's legacy or similar artwork sales could also move this market.
