TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$185,665,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,833,875,329
407,365
Markets across
40,470
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,365
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
![Alma Thomas: Opus I and Opus II [Two Works] (lot 104) sale price?](https://assets.kalshi.com/series-images-webp/KXART.webp){kind=avatar}
Above $35K
- Kalshi
Above $35K - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 8, 2026
Closed: Oct 8, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the auction outcome for a pair of artworks by Alma Thomas, determining whether the final sale price exceeds various thresholds. The resolution depends solely on the official sale price recorded during the specified auction.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether the final sale price of Alma Thomas's Opus I and Opus II (lot 104) at Sotheby's Contemporary Curated auction on October 7, 2026 exceeds specified thresholds. Each market corresponds to a different price threshold, with the outcome determined by comparing the actual sale price to that threshold. The sale price is verified from the “Lot Sold” figure displayed on Sotheby’s website post-auction. If reported in a currency other than USD, the amount will be converted using the prevailing exchange rate at the time of verification. It is important to note that Sotheby’s has not endorsed these markets, and any references to the auction house are purely descriptive and do not imply affiliation or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the prediction market odds reflect a range of expectations regarding the final sale price of the Alma Thomas artwork. These expectations are formed by the collective intelligence of traders on Kalshi, who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. It’s interesting to compare this market’s implied probabilities with those offered by art market analysts and auction house pre-sale estimates. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market anticipates a different result than experts, potentially due to unique information or perspectives held by traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts at any time, setting their own prices. The price of each contract reflects the probability of the corresponding outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more trades occur, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus of market participants. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the likelihood of different sale price ranges for the Alma Thomas pieces, offering a unique perspective compared to static pre-sale estimates.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final sale price of the Alma Thomas artwork is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official auction results released by the auction house. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predicted price range aligns with the actual sale price. The market’s resolution process is designed to be transparent and objective, relying on publicly available data to determine the winning contracts.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market before its resolution. Any news regarding the condition of the artwork, increased media attention surrounding Alma Thomas’s work, or shifts in the broader art market could all impact trader sentiment. Strong pre-sale bidding activity or announcements of prominent collectors expressing interest could also move the market. Additionally, broader economic indicators or changes in investor confidence could indirectly affect the perceived value of the artwork and, consequently, the prices within this market.
