TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 11:07 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match in Peru's top league between two teams competing for victory. The result is determined solely by the final score after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. Participants can speculate on whether either team will win or if the game will end in a draw based on the official match result.
The event resolves based on the official result of the Alianza Lima versus Asociacion Deportiva Tarma professional Peru Liga 1 soccer match scheduled for September 18, 2026, after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, but excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Three possible outcomes are considered: a win for Alianza Lima, a win for Asociacion Deportiva Tarma, or a tie. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price according to the platform's guidelines. The event exclusively uses the result from regular time to determine outcomes, with no consideration given to post-match proceedings such as extra time or penalties.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates insights from individuals with varying levels of knowledge. If sportsbook odds suggest a clear favorite, it’s interesting to see if this market shows a similar consensus, or if traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of certain outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information or interpretations of the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability assessment of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth, indicated by the volume of contracts available at different price points, also provides insights into the level of confidence traders have in their predictions. The current volume indicates strong interest in the Alianza Lima vs Tarma match.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Alianza Lima vs Tarma match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The market will determine which outcome – a win for Alianza Lima, a win for Tarma, or a draw – actually occurred during the scheduled match. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts adjusted based on the final, verified result of the game.
Several factors could influence this market before the match takes place. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Alianza Lima or Tarma would likely cause price movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also impact the market. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and lead to price fluctuations as traders react to the evolving information landscape.