TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 100K
- Kalshi
Above 100K - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 4, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Aug 23, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group tracks the first-week album sales performance of Alex Warren's album 'Wildchild', released on August 28, 2026. Markets across different platforms are structured around thresholds of pure album sales during the debut week.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Threshold mismatch and source fragility due to differing market structures and resolution criteria across platformsHero tip: Focus on Hits Daily Double as the primary resolution source. Kalshi markets will resolve based on whether sales cross any of their listed thresholds, while Polymarket markets depend on specific brackets. Verify the exact sales number to determine outcomes across all markets.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Binary markets resolving if pure album sales exceed thresholds from 10K to 100K during August 14-20, 2026 tracking week
- Polymarket: Bracket markets resolving based on sales ranges (<50K, 50K-70K, 70K-90K, 90K-110K, 110K-130K, 130K+) using Hits Daily Double as the primary source
Polymarket
Alex Warren's new album 'Wildchild' is expected to release August 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Alex Warren's album 'Wildchild', according to Hits Daily Double. If the album 'Wildchild' has not been released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the album's debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album's debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by KATSEYE's reported pure album sales (product sales) for 'WILD' during the August 14-20, 2026 tracking week in the United States. The event contains tiered thresholds ranging from above 10,000 to above 100,000 units. Resolution will occur on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week based on data provided by Luminate Data, LLC, which serves as the neutral provider of market metrics. Each threshold represents a distinct sales performance level.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through trader sentiment that often diverges from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may publish their sales estimates based on historical data and promotional strategies, prediction market odds reflect real-time betting activity and can shift rapidly with new information, social media buzz, or early sales reports. This creates a dynamic comparison point between expert projections and crowd-sourced forecasts.