TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 6:32 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Alabama or Kentucky specifically within the third quarter of their college football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the bet to pay out.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between Alabama and Kentucky exclusively during the third quarter of their college football game scheduled for September 12, 2026. For markets where Alabama is the favorite, resolution occurs if Alabama's third-quarter score exceeds Kentucky's by more than the specified margin (ranging from 1.5 to 10.5 points). Conversely, for markets where Kentucky is the favorite, resolution occurs if Kentucky's third-quarter score exceeds Alabama's by more than the specified margin (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points). All markets exclusively consider points scored during the third quarter, disregarding any points from other quarters. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original scheduled start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches. However, there can be initial discrepancies. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. It’s common to see this market diverge from sportsbook lines as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, potentially offering value to informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic process leads to a market-determined price that aggregates the collective intelligence of all traders.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread achieved in the third quarter of the Alabama vs Kentucky game will determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data provider, ensuring a fair and accurate settlement of this market.
Several factors could influence the Alabama vs Kentucky spread between now and game day. Any news regarding key player injuries on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse playing conditions, could also shift the market. Furthermore, updates on team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as public sentiment shifts based on expert analysis, could all contribute to movements in this market.