TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers multiple prediction markets for the Saudi Pro League match between Al Hilal and Al Ittihad scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets include spread bets (goal margin thresholds), both teams to score, and total goals over/under lines across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses asymmetric binary (Yes if either team exceeds threshold) while Polymarket uses symmetric spread logic (resolves to winning team). Both reference the same official source (spl.com.sa) and time window (90 min + stoppage), but the logical structure of resolution differs fundamentally.Hero Tip:
Kalshi markets are binary outcomes triggered by goal margin thresholds for either team. Polymarket spreads are directional: they resolve to the team that wins by the margin, or the opposite team if they don't. A 2-0 Al Hilal win triggers Kalshi's >1.5 threshold (YES) but resolves Polymarket's -1.5 to Al Hilal (not a Yes/No). Ensure your hedge accounts for this structural difference.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Four binary markets using asymmetric threshold logic. Markets resolve YES if Al Hilal wins by >1.5 goals OR Al Ittihad wins by >1.5 goals (separate markets for >2.5). Quote: 'If Al Hilal wins by more than 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Al-Ittihad wins by more than 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Spread markets resolve to the team that covers the margin, or the opposite team if they don't. Both Teams to Score is binary (Yes/No). Quote: 'This market will resolve to Al Hilal Saudi Club if Al Hilal Saudi Club win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Al Ittihad Saudi Club.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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