TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 12:00 AM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the point differential in the first half of an upcoming college football game. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory, allowing participants to bet on whether the outcome will exceed that threshold.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first half of the Air Force vs Nevada college football game scheduled for September 26, 2026. For markets where Air Force is the favorite, resolution occurs if Air Force leads by more than the specified point margin at halftime. Conversely, for markets where Nevada is the favorite, resolution occurs if Nevada leads by more than the specified margin at halftime. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the official halftime score. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under unforeseen scheduling disruptions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a margin for profit, while this market allows traders to express their own independent assessments. If prediction market participants believe a sportsbook line is inaccurate, they can trade against it, driving the price toward what they perceive as the true probability. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available and public sentiment shifts closer to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different sides of the spread. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price fluctuates, providing a dynamic representation of expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the price on Kalshi is solely determined by the activity of traders on that venue and isn’t influenced by any other market.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official first-half spread result as determined by the governing body of the college football game. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances after the official result is reported. The market will close prior to the event’s completion to prevent any trading based on live game information.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Air Force or Nevada teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to affect the style of play, could also move the market. Public perception, influenced by expert analysis or media coverage, can also play a role. Finally, any large-volume trades on Kalshi could indicate informed activity and cause the price to shift quickly.