TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
AHL: Hartford Wolf Pack vs. Springfield Thunderbirds
Description
In the upcoming AHL game, scheduled for April 18 at 6:05PM ET: If Hartford Wolf Pack win, the market will resolve to "Hartford Wolf Pack". If Springfield Thunderbirds win, the market will resolve to "Springfield Thunderbirds". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction: it resolves YES if EITHER team wins, making it impossible to distinguish between outcomes. Polymarket correctly structures the market as a binary choice between two mutually exclusive outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. It is fundamentally unresolvable as written because both possible game outcomes (Hartford wins OR Springfield wins) trigger a YES resolution. The Polymarket version is the only logically coherent market in this group.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary outcome market: resolves to 'Hartford Wolf Pack' if Hartford wins, or 'Springfield Thunderbirds' if Springfield wins. Includes proper edge cases for postponement (market stays open) and cancellation (50-50 split). Quote: 'If Hartford Wolf Pack win, the market will resolve to Hartford Wolf Pack. If Springfield Thunderbirds win, the market will resolve to Springfield Thunderbirds.'
- Kalshi: Logically incoherent: states 'If Springfield Thunderbirds wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Hartford Wolf Pack wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This means both possible outcomes resolve YES, leaving no NO resolution path. Quote: 'If Springfield Thunderbirds wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Hartford Wolf Pack wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.