TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Adelaide United FC vs. Perth Glory FC A-League soccer match scheduled for February 20, 2026. Polymarket offers three binary markets (Adelaide win, draw, Perth win), while Kalshi provides four spread-based markets (Adelaide/Perth by >1.5 and >2.5 goals). All markets resolve based on the result within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi cover fundamentally different outcome spaces. Polymarket's three binary markets are mutually exclusive and exhaustive (one must resolve YES). Kalshi's four spread markets are sparse and leave multiple outcomes unpriced, creating incomplete coverage.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket markets are hedges or mirrors. A 1-0 Adelaide win resolves YES on Polymarket's Adelaide winner but does NOT resolve YES on any Kalshi market. A draw resolves YES on Polymarket's draw market but does NOT resolve YES on any Kalshi market. Use Polymarket for full outcome exposure; use Kalshi only for high-confidence spread bets.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three mutually exclusive binary markets: Adelaide win (YES/NO), Draw (YES/NO), Perth win (YES/NO). Exactly one resolves YES. Covers all possible 90-minute outcomes. Cancellation without makeup resolves Adelaide and Perth markets to NO, draw market to YES.Kalshi:
Four directional spread markets: Adelaide >2.5 goals, Adelaide >1.5 goals, Perth >2.5 goals, Perth >1.5 goals. Each resolves YES only if the specified threshold is met. Outcomes with 1-goal margins or draws are not covered by any YES resolution path.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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