TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Serie A soccer match between ACF Fiorentina and Parma Calcio 1913 scheduled for March 8, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess the outcome (Fiorentina win, draw, or Parma win) based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents three mutually exclusive outcomes all marked as Yes-resolving conditions without explicit cancellation handling, while Polymarket provides explicit cancellation rules with asymmetric treatment (draw resolves Yes on cancellation; win markets resolve No).Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi's three markets as a complete outcome set where exactly one resolves Yes per match. On Polymarket, the draw market has upside optionality in cancellation scenarios. Confirm match status through official Lega Serie A channels before settlement. If postponement occurs, both platforms keep markets open; if full cancellation with no makeup, Polymarket draw wins automatically.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Three separate markets cover Fiorentina win, Tie, and Parma win, each resolving Yes if their condition is met after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation clause provided. Logical structure implies mutual exclusivity but lacks clarity on edge cases.Polymarket:
Three separate markets with explicit cancellation rules: Fiorentina win and Parma win resolve No if canceled with no makeup; draw resolves Yes if canceled. Postponement keeps markets open. Primary source is official Lega Serie A statistics within 2 hours of conclusion, or credible reporting consensus thereafter.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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