TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
ACF Fiorentina vs. FC Internazionale Milano - More Markets
Volume:
$577,320
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
More markets for the Serie A game, scheduled for March 22 at 3:45 PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different spread thresholds and market structures. Polymarket offers spread markets at -1.5, -2.5 thresholds with binary outcomes, while Kalshi structures its markets as conditional Yes/No resolutions based on margin-of-victory conditions. Both resolve on the same underlying event (90 minutes plus stoppage time, legaseriea.it as primary source), but the market mechanics and outcome mapping differ.Hero Tip:
If you trade spreads on Polymarket, note that a Fiorentina win by exactly 2 goals resolves differently than on Kalshi: Polymarket's Fiorentina (-1.5) resolves YES, but Kalshi's 'Fiorentina wins by more than 1.5' resolves NO. Ensure your position aligns with the platform's exact threshold logic before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket uses binary spread markets with outcomes tied to margin thresholds. For example, 'Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)' resolves YES if Fiorentina wins by 2 or more goals, otherwise NO. All markets (O/U, spreads, BTTS) resolve on official legaseriea.it final score within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with 50-50 resolution if game is canceled entirely.
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi structures spread outcomes as conditional Yes/No resolutions. For example, 'If Fiorentina wins by more than 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.' The threshold is strictly 'more than' (not 'at least'), meaning a 2-goal win triggers Yes, but a 1.5-goal margin does not. Both platforms resolve on the same underlying event (90 minutes plus stoppage time, March 22, 2026), but Kalshi's conditional phrasing creates a subtle mechanical difference in how outcomes map to resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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