TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 16, 6:59 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Sport Lisboa e Benfica will score over 0.5 goals in the second half of their match against AC Milan. Currently, the probability of Sport Lisboa e Benfica scoring over 0.5 goals in the second half on Polymarket is 100.0%, while the probability of AC Milan scoring over 1.5 goals in the second half is 0.1%. The resolution source for this market is https://www.uefa.com/. Keep an eye on the kickoff of the UEFA Europa League game itself, scheduled for September 16 at 3:00 PM ET, as the outcome will be determined by the events of that match.
More markets for the UEFA Europa League game, scheduled for September 16 at 3:00 PM ET.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and include a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective predictions of traders. If a significant difference emerges, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by betting on both venues. However, it’s important to remember that prediction markets are forward-looking and can incorporate information faster than sportsbooks, leading to potentially more accurate probabilities as the event approaches.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes of the AC Milan vs Benfica match, and the price of each share reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more traders believe AC Milan will win, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence of all participants.
This market resolves around Sep 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official result of the AC Milan vs Benfica match, as reported by a recognized sports authority. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to ensure accuracy and finalize the settlement of all outstanding shares. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand when the market will be settled.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Sep 16, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either AC Milan or Benfica would likely cause price fluctuations. Major tactical announcements from either manager, changes in team form leading up to the match, or even unexpected weather conditions could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Polymarket itself can create momentum and shift the odds, reflecting changes in perceived probabilities.