TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Sport Lisboa e Benfica
all
3 markets
Polymarket
Limitless
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 16, 2026
Closed: Sep 16, 7:02 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the outcome of the UEFA Europa League match between AC Milan and Sport Lisboa e Benfica, scheduled for September 16, 2026, specifically whether Sport Lisboa e Benfica will win. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Limitless, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict gives Sport Lisboa e Benfica a 99.0% probability of winning, with AC Milan at 1.0%. Resolution will be based on official match statistics, with potential fallbacks to Flashscore or Sofascore, and considers only the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time as defined by the governing body or event organizers. Keep a close watch on the match itself as it takes place on September 16, 2026, to see if the anticipated outcome materializes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Different platforms have varying resolution logic regarding cancellations/abandoned matches and focus on different market types (outcome vs. goals).Hero tip: Prioritize platforms with clear resolution sources and consistent handling of edge cases like postponements and cancellations. Consider the market type when assessing risk.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves win/draw/loss markets based on official statistics (with fallbacks) within 90 minutes + stoppage time. Cancellation resolves to 'No' for win/loss, and uses fallbacks if official stats are unavailable.
- Limitless: Resolves win/loss to 'NO' if the match is not completed and no make-up match is scheduled, and draw to 'YES' in the same scenario. Relies on official statistics.
- Kalshi: Focuses exclusively on over/under goal totals within 90 minutes + stoppage time. No mention of handling cancellations or abandoned matches.
- Predict: Mirrors Polymarket's resolution logic for win/draw/loss markets, relying on official statistics with fallbacks and resolving within 90 minutes + stoppage time.
Polymarket
This event is for the upcoming UEFA Europa League game, scheduled for Wednesday, September 16, 2026 between AC Milan and Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for total goals scored in the Milan vs SL Benfica Europa League match scheduled for September 16, 2026. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the combined goals exceed a specified half-goal increment (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5). All markets consider only goals scored during the 90-minute regulation period plus any stoppage time, explicitly excluding extra time or penalty shootout scenarios. The governing rules emphasize that Kalshi operates independently of the official league governance, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Predict
This event is for the upcoming UEFA Europa League game, scheduled for Wednesday, September 16, 2026 between AC Milan and Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Limitless
This market resolves to "YES" if the listed club wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts, in the match scheduled for September 16, 2026, 19:00 UTC. Otherwise, it will resolve to "NO." If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is not completed as scheduled for any reason (for example, if it is abandoned, canceled, or awarded), and an official final result is recognized by the governing body or event organizers, this market will resolve based on that result. If no official final result is recognized and no make-up match is scheduled, this market will resolve "NO." Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the nature of how each is determined. Sportsbooks set lines based on statistical models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by the collective predictions of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This can lead to more efficient price discovery, particularly as more information becomes available. While sportsbooks may initially reflect public perception, prediction markets can adjust more rapidly to new data and expert opinions, offering a potentially more accurate assessment.