TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above $5M
- Kalshi
Above $5M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 21, 2026
Closed: Jul 21, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Aaron Judge's game-worn jersey from his rookie debut and first career home run in 2016 will be auctioned at Sotheby's on July 1, 2026. The final sale price of this historic Yankees memorabilia will determine outcomes across multiple price thresholds.
Kalshi
This event tracks the hammer price of Aaron Judge's 2016 rookie debut game-worn New York Yankees jersey from his first career home run, sold at Sotheby's live auction on July 1, 2026 at 10:00 EDT. Seven separate markets correspond to progressive price thresholds: $3M, $4M, $5M, $6M, $7M, $8M, and $9M. Each market resolves to Yes if the final lot sale price exceeds its respective threshold. The official sale price is determined by the amount displayed under "Lot Sold" on the Sotheby's website. If the hammer price is reported in a currency other than USD, it will be converted to USD using the prevailing exchange rate at the time of sale. All outcomes are verified against the official Sotheby's auction records.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from many participants rather than relying on a single expert opinion. In this market, traders are directly wagering on the outcome, which creates financial incentives to price in all available information quickly. While analysts may publish estimates based on comparable sales or expert judgment, the market odds reflect the collective confidence of participants willing to back their views with actual capital, sometimes revealing insights that formal forecasts miss.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different price outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The bid-ask spread reflects the current supply and demand for each outcome, and prices update continuously as new trades execute. Your position's value fluctuates with market sentiment, and you can exit at any time by selling your shares at the prevailing market price, giving you full liquidity throughout the trading window.
This market resolves around Jul 21, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once the jersey sale price is verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution hinges on documented evidence of the actual sale price, whether from auction results, official announcements, or established market reporting. Traders holding positions aligned with the final verified price receive their payouts, while those on the opposite side settle at the market's conclusion.
Several catalysts could shift this market significantly. Major auction announcements or pre-sale estimates from reputable houses would influence trader expectations immediately. Aaron Judge's continued performance, career milestones, or Hall of Fame trajectory could affect the jersey's perceived collectible value. Media coverage, comparable sales of other iconic rookie memorabilia, and shifts in the broader sports collectibles market could also trigger repricing. Any official statements about the jersey's provenance or condition would likely spark trading activity as participants recalibrate their forecasts.
