TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 27, 4:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This event assesses the margin of victory in the Aarhus vs SL Benfica soccer match during regular time. The outcome hinges on whether Aarhus or SL Benfica achieves a win by a margin exceeding particular goal differences, indicating the dominance of one team over the other within the standard match timeframe.
This event evaluates whether Aarhus or SL Benfica wins the match by a margin exceeding specific goal differences during the regular 90 minutes plus stoppage time of the Europa League game on August 27, 2026. Two markets exist for Aarhus winning by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, and two markets exist for SL Benfica winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. If the winning team's margin of victory meets or exceeds the specified threshold for a market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Extra time and penalty shootout results are excluded from all calculations. Each market operates independently, allowing for potential multiple resolutions depending on the match outcome.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set the price through buying and selling contracts that represent Aarhus winning by a certain margin or Benfica covering the spread. The current implied probability reflects the balance of buy and sell orders, adjusting instantly to new information like lineup changes or weather updates. Volume of $15,059 and 24-hour volume of $12,478 show how much trading activity is happening around the spread.
This market resolves around Aug 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official result from the match — specifically the difference between the two teams' goals — determines whether Aarhus covers the spread or Benfica wins outright. No adjustments are made for overtime or disputed calls; the confirmed score settles the market.
Injuries to key players, weather conditions on match day, and strategic lineup announcements can all shift this market. Strong recent form for either team, especially in high-stakes matches, may also cause traders to re-evaluate the likely margin of victory. Any last-minute coaching changes or tactical decisions that favor a more aggressive or defensive approach could push the implied probability in either direction as Aug 28, 2026 approaches.