TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$129,159,707

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,442,132,418

404,744

Markets across

30,489

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,691

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
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Sports
Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK?

Volume:
$472,235

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 12:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$71,129
N/A
N/A
$38,848
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK)

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$21,825
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Molde

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$209,364
N/A
N/A
$124,671
Settled
No
polymarket

Molde FK

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$69,706
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Aalesund

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$77,386
N/A
N/A
$51,237
Settled
No
polymarket

Aalesunds FK

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,826
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers a professional Eliteserien (Norwegian top-flight soccer) match between Aalesunds FK and Molde FK scheduled for July 11, 2026. Markets track the three possible outcomes: Aalesund win, Molde win, or draw, all measured at 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket structures three separate binary markets with asymmetric cancellation handling, while Kalshi uses a single ternary market where all three outcomes are mutually exclusive resolution paths. Both platforms agree on the core match outcome determination (90 minutes plus stoppage time, official governing body source) but differ in market architecture and cancellation treatment.Hero tip: Understand your platform's market structure before hedging across venues. On Polymarket, the draw market is the only one that resolves Yes on cancellation; on Kalshi, cancellation would require explicit guidance since the ternary structure assumes one outcome must occur. Cross-platform arbitrage is possible but requires careful position tracking across the different market types.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three independent binary markets. Aalesund win (Yes/No), Draw (Yes/No), Molde win (Yes/No). Cancellation rule: Draw market resolves Yes if canceled with no makeup; Aalesund and Molde win markets resolve No if canceled. Resolution source: Official Eliteserien statistics within 2 hours, or credible reporting consensus if delayed.
  • Kalshi: Single ternary market with three mutually exclusive Yes resolution paths: Aalesund win resolves Yes, Molde win resolves Yes, or Tie resolves Yes. Exactly one outcome will resolve Yes. No explicit cancellation rule stated; assumes match will be completed or rescheduled. Resolution source: Official Eliteserien statistics for the match originally scheduled July 11, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Norway Eliteserien game, scheduled for Saturday, July 11, 2026 between Aalesunds FK and Molde FK.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final result of the Aalesund vs Molde professional Eliteserien soccer game originally scheduled for July 11, 2026, evaluated after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time or penalties). Each outcome—Aalesund win, Molde win, or tie—resolves its corresponding market to Yes based on the match result. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled more than two weeks from the original date, all markets resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data for the Aalesund vs. Molde football match across Polymarket and Kalshi, two leading platforms where traders forecast the match outcome. You can monitor real-time odds, trading volume, and consensus probability shifts as the event approaches. The cross-platform view reveals how different trader communities price the same fixture, offering insight into whether one platform's participants hold stronger conviction than the other. This multi-venue perspective helps you spot arbitrage opportunities and gauge overall market confidence in each team's chances.

Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets are driven purely by trader belief and capital allocation. Prediction markets typically update faster in response to breaking news—injuries, lineup changes, or weather—since traders profit directly from accuracy. Comparing this market's odds to major sportsbooks can reveal mispricings, though prediction market liquidity may be lower, making large positions riskier to execute.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct trader demographics, regulatory frameworks, and fee structures that influence how odds are set. Polymarket and Kalshi may have different user bases with varying risk appetites or information access, causing one to price Aalesund's chances higher or lower than the other. Liquidity depth also varies—if one platform has fewer active traders, prices may lag behind the other when new information emerges. Monitoring both venues helps you identify temporary mispricings and understand where the broader market consensus truly lies.

Key injury announcements, lineup confirmations, and recent team form will significantly shift odds as the match date approaches. Weather conditions at the venue, head-to-head history, and any last-minute tactical changes can trigger sharp moves. Betting syndicates and professional traders often enter late, causing rapid repricing in the final hours before kickoff. Monitor team news feeds and social media for unexpected developments—a star player's injury or a surprise managerial decision can swing this market sharply in either direction.