TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a professional Argentina Primera Division soccer match between AA Argentinos Juniors and CA River Plate scheduled for February 12, 2026. Three mutually exclusive outcomes are being tracked across platforms: Argentinos Juniors win, River Plate win, or a draw. Resolution is based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure contains a logical contradiction where all three outcome-based markets resolve to Yes on any result, violating basic mutual exclusivity. This makes Kalshi's markets fundamentally unresolvable as distinct betting instruments.Hero Tip:
Avoid trading Kalshi's Argentinos Juniors vs River Plate markets. The resolution logic guarantees all three markets pay out simultaneously regardless of match outcome, eliminating directional risk. Use Polymarket's three binary markets instead, which properly isolate Argentinos win, River Plate win, and draw outcomes with correct Yes/No exclusivity.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Three markets all resolve to Yes on any outcome. Market 1: 'If Tie wins...resolves to Yes.' Market 2: 'If River Plate wins...resolves to Yes.' Market 3: 'If Argentinos wins...resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility where every possible match result triggers all three markets simultaneously, violating mutual exclusivity.Polymarket:
Three properly structured binary markets with correct mutual exclusivity. Market 1: 'Will AA Argentinos Juniors win...resolve to Yes/No.' Market 2: 'Will CA River Plate win...resolve to Yes/No.' Market 3: 'Will draw occur...resolve to Yes/No.' Only one market resolves Yes based on actual match outcome.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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