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471,138

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2,926

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5

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9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
polymarket
opinion

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Total volume:
$4,339,478
Volume 24h:
$129N/A
Liquidity:
$11,839
0.84%
Open interest:
$55,248N/A

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

all

2 markets

Opinion

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 1, 2027

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

25%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 31.1¢ buys you 322 shares | Odds: 25% Total Payout: $322 | Net Profit: $222 Multiplier: 3.22x | ROI: 222% APY not meaningful 76 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Trade
25%
Yes 31.1¢No 99.8¢
30.9¢
N/A
$4,007,719
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
polymarket

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 97.3¢
1.3¢
$11,839
$331,758
0.04%
0.55%
N/A
3mo 2w 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.4%
Yes 17.5¢No 98.6¢
Avg: 16.1¢Max: 30.9¢
Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of at least one earthquake with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occurring anywhere in the world before the end of 2026. Currently, the consensus probability—aggregated from Polymarket and Opinion—is 25.0% that such an earthquake will occur. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef) serves as the definitive source for resolution. Keep an eye on seismic activity as we approach February 1, 2027, which is the current resolution date estimate for this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The two platforms specify different market inception dates (December 8 vs December 15, 2025), creating a 7-day window divergence. All other resolution criteria, sources, and procedures are identical.Hero tip: Any 9.0+ magnitude earthquake occurring between December 8-14, 2025 will resolve YES on Polymarket but NO on Opinion. This is a material trading divergence. Monitor USGS data in early December 2025. If you hold positions on both platforms, be aware of this timing mismatch and adjust hedge ratios accordingly.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Market window opens December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET. Resolves YES if any earthquake 9.0+ magnitude occurs between December 8, 2025 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Uses USGS Earthquake Hazards Program as primary source with 24-hour revision window post-registration and fallback to credible alternative source if needed by January 31, 2027.
  • Opinion: Market window opens December 15, 2025 12:00 PM ET (7 days later). Resolves YES if any earthquake 9.0+ magnitude occurs between December 15, 2025 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Uses identical USGS source, revision procedures, and fallback logic as Polymarket.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 15, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, this dashboard tracks a consensus view of the probability of a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake occurring before Feb 1, 2027. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $4,339,478, with $154 traded in the last 24 hours. The aggregate shows traders assigning a probability of approximately 21.6 to the event happening. This allows for a comprehensive look at market sentiment regarding this significant geological possibility, aggregating data from multiple sources to provide a more robust prediction than either Polymarket or Opinion alone could offer.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' that can differ from individual expert opinions. While seismologists provide valuable insights into earthquake probabilities based on geological data, this market incorporates a broader range of information and perspectives. It’s not uncommon to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and traditional forecasts, as traders may weigh factors not fully captured in scientific models. However, studies have shown prediction markets can sometimes outperform traditional forecasting methods, especially when dealing with complex and uncertain events.

Prices on Polymarket and Opinion can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing valuations. Trading volume also plays a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the specific mechanisms for trading and market making on each platform can influence price formation. Currently, Polymarket currently favors a lower probability of a 9.0+ earthquake at 3.4%, while Opinion leans toward a higher probability at 25.0%.

This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on data from established seismological agencies regarding the magnitude and timing of any earthquakes that occur. The outcome of this market is whether a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake has occurred at any location globally before the resolution date. No specific source is used to determine the outcome, but rather a consensus from established and reliable sources.

Several events could significantly influence the price of this market. Major aftershocks following a large earthquake in a known subduction zone could increase perceived risk. New scientific research suggesting increased seismic activity in a particular region could also shift trader sentiment. Conversely, a period of prolonged seismic quiet, with no significant earthquakes, might lower the perceived probability. Geopolitical events impacting monitoring capabilities or disaster preparedness could also play a role. Any credible reports from geological surveys or changes in established risk assessments would likely move this market.