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46th FIDE Chess Olympiad: Team USA
kalshi

46th FIDE Chess Olympiad: Team USA

Volume:
$19,419

Awonder Liang

 - Kalshi

Awonder Liang - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Aug 11, 1:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Awonder Liang

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,809
N/A
N/A
$3,528
Settled
Yes
kalshi

John Donaldson

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,989
N/A
N/A
$189
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hans Niemann

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,529
N/A
N/A
$1,130
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Wesley So

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$754
N/A
N/A
$754
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Fabiano Caruana

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Levon Aronian

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hikaru Nakamura

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,038
N/A
N/A
$4,094
Settled
No
kalshi

Leinier Domínguez Pérez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,252
N/A
N/A
$665
Settled
No
kalshi

Grigoriy Oparin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,503
N/A
N/A
$1,503
Settled
No
kalshi

Abhimanyu Mishra

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$194
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Jeffery Xiong

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Mikhail Antipov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Sam Shankland

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Ray Robson

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Samuel Sevian

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market on Kalshi tracks whether Hans Niemann will be selected to represent the United States in the Open Tournament at the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad. The leading outcome currently stands at 80.0%. Resolution will be determined by official team selection announcements from the United States Chess Federation, with the tournament scheduled for September 15, 2026. Watch for the USCF's formal roster announcement, which will definitively settle whether Niemann earns a spot on the team.

Kalshi

This market refers to the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament originally scheduled from Sep 15, 2026 to Sep 28, 2026. Resolution is based on whether a player is selected to the team as either a captain or a player. If they are selected but do not end up participating in the event, the market still resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Chess Olympiad team USA market provides a real-time view of trading activity. You’ll find the current odds for various outcomes related to team selection, as well as a price history chart illustrating how those odds have changed over time. The 24-hour trading volume, currently at $187, is also displayed, indicating the level of recent interest in this market. Total volume to date is $19,419, showing the overall investment in predicting the composition of the US team for the Olympiad.

Comparing prediction market odds to sportsbook odds reveals how public perception differs from professional analysis. Sportsbooks typically set lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the event's outcome. Often, prediction markets demonstrate greater accuracy than traditional polls or early sportsbook lines, as traders continuously update their assessments based on new information and strategic considerations. Discrepancies can arise due to differing risk appetites and information access between traders and bookmakers.

This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official team roster for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad is announced and the event’s results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official team selection and final standings as determined by FIDE, the International Chess Federation. Traders will be able to view the final outcome and settlement details on Kalshi following the event's conclusion. This market’s outcome will reflect the performance of Team USA at the Olympiad.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Official announcements regarding team selection are the most obvious catalyst, as are any major tournament results for potential team members leading up to the Olympiad. Unexpected injuries or withdrawals of key players would also likely cause shifts in the odds. News regarding player form, coaching decisions, or changes in the tournament format could also influence trading activity. This market will resolve around Sep 15, 2026, and the outcome will be verified against credible public reporting of the final team roster.